Prominent economic historian, lawyer and professor at Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Prof. Tunji Ogunyemi, has declared that at least 15 states in the northern part of Nigeria will collapse within three months if fuel subsidy is returned.
Prof. Ogunyemi, who spoke on a podcast “Open Forum 360, by Dare Adekanmbi,” frowned at the clamour by some politicians and interest groups for the return of subsidy on petroleum.
The don noted that restoring fuel subsidy will significantly reduce allocations to states of the federation.
According to him, only four states can survive without federal allocation.
He listed Lagos, Delta and Rivers among states that could cope without the federal monthly allocations. However, he mentioned Taraba as an example of a state that cannot survive without federal allocation.
Prof. Ogunyemi said, “I think it is calamitous, to say the least, if we reverse the subsidy regime in Nigeria in favour of returning the subsidies.
“It will lead to four disabilities. The first is that there will be reduced accrual to the Federation Account.
“The Federation Account is the jugular of more than 30 states in the federation. Only about four states in Nigeria can survive without the Federation Account.
“So if you now say reduce the accrual from the federal account, I tell you more than about 15 states in the north will collapse. They will collapse within three months.
“The second is that states will return to a regime of incapacity to pay salaries, let alone pensions. That is consumption expenditure.
“You reduce the revenue in that respect, you will see a situation in which government will not be able to support its minimum expenditure, let alone go for capital expenditure.
“The fourth and the final one is that Nigeria will not be able to meet its debt obligations.”
On the position of former Vice President and presidential candidate of African Democratic Congress (ADC), Atiku Abubakar, the don asked him to be clearer about the implications of his policy proposal.
“I think it is playing to the gallery, with due respect to him. He should be a little less opaque about his policy.
“You don’t want to get political support through votes or more votes by wanting to cut the jugular of your country,” Ogunyemi said.
